What States Have More Registered Democrats Than Republicans

Story Highlights

Preferences shifted from nine-bespeak Democratic reward to five-point GOP border
Average party preferences for all of 2021 similar to by years
Largest percent of U.S. adults place equally political independents

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying equally Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified equally Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

Withal, the full general stability for the total-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-signal Democratic advantage in the offset quarter to a rare 5-bespeak Republican border in the quaternary quarter.

These results are based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than than 12,000 randomly sampled U.Southward. adults.

Gallup asks all Americans it interviews whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican or Autonomous Party. The combined percentage of party identifiers and leaners gives a mensurate of the relative strength of the 2 parties politically.

Both the nine-point Democratic advantage in the outset quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the quaternary quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since information technology began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.

The Autonomous lead in the starting time quarter was the largest for the party since the fourth quarter of 2012, when Democrats as well had a nine-bespeak advantage. Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters betwixt 1992 and 1999 and nearly continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009.
The GOP has held as much equally a five-point reward in a total of only iv quarters since 1991. The Republicans concluding held a five-point reward in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the Business firm of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s. Republicans had a larger reward only in the get-go quarter of 1991, after the U.Due south. victory in the Western farsi Gulf War led past then-President George H.W. Bush.

Political party Preference Shifts Follow Changes in Presidential Blessing

Shifting party preferences in 2021 are probable tied to changes in popularity of the two men who served every bit president during the year. Republican Donald Trump finished out his unmarried term in January, afterward existence defeated in the 2020 ballot, with a 34% task approval rating, the lowest of his term. His popularity barbarous more than than 10 points from Ballot Day 2020 equally the country's COVID-19 infections and deaths reached then-record highs, he refused to acknowledge the result of the election, and his supporters rioted at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to prevent Congress from counting the 2020 Electoral College votes.

Democrat Joe Biden enjoyed relatively high ratings afterward taking part on January. xx, and his blessing stayed high through the early summertime as COVID-nineteen infections dramatically decreased after millions of Americans got vaccinated against the disease. A summer surge of infections tied to the delta variant of the coronavirus made information technology clear the pandemic was not over in the U.S., and Biden's approval ratings began to sag. Later, the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan acquired Biden'due south ratings to fall further, into the low 40s. His ratings remain low as the U.South. battles rising inflation and nonetheless another surge of COVID-19 infections, tied to the omicron variant of the virus.

With Trump'south approving rating at a depression point and Biden relatively popular in the first quarter, 49% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, compared with xl% who were Republicans or Republican leaners.

In the second quarter, Democratic amalgamation stayed loftier, while Republican affiliation began to recover, increasing to 43%.

The third quarter saw a turn down in Democratic identification and leaning, from 49% to 45%, as Biden's ratings began to falter, while there was no meaningful alter in Republican amalgamation.

In the quaternary quarter, party back up flipped as Republicans made gains, from 44% to 47%, and Democratic affiliation fell from 45% to 42%. These quaternary-quarter shifts coincided with strong GOP performances in 2021 elections, including a Republican victory in the Virginia gubernatorial election and a near-upset of the Autonomous incumbent governor in New Jersey. Biden won both states by double digits in the 2020 election.

The GOP advantage may be starting to ease, however, as Gallup'southward latest monthly estimate, from December, showed the two parties about even -- 46% Republican/Republican leaning and 44% Democratic/Autonomous leaning.

2021 Shifts Occurred Among Both Core Party Identifiers and Less Attached Leaners

The shifts in party affiliation in each quarter of 2021 were apparent in both the percentage identifying with each party and the per centum of independents leaning to each party, but with more than changes among leaners than identifiers.

Between the start and fourth quarters, the percentage of Democratic identifiers decreased past two points, while the pct of Democratic-leaning independents dropped five points. Republican identification increased by three points from the beginning to the end of 2021, while Republican leaners increased by 4 points.

Changes in Party Identification and Leaning, past Quarter, 2021

In politics, equally of today, practise you consider yourself -- [a Republican, a Democrat] -- or an independent? // As of today, do y'all lean more to the -- [Democratic Party or the Republican Party]?

	2021-I	2021-Two	2021-Three	2021-IV
	%	%	%	%
Democrat	30	31	28	28
Democratic-leaning independent	19	18	17	14
Not-leaning independent	x	5	eight	9
Republican-leaning independent	15	17	16	xix
Republican	25	26	28	28
Pct with no opinion non shown
Gallup

Democrats Usually Hold an Advantage, and Did And so in 2021

When all the 2021 shifts are netted out, the Democrats' average three-betoken reward for the entirety of the year is merely slightly smaller than they had in recent years. Democrats held five- or vi-point advantages in party amalgamation each year between 2016 and 2020, and iii-indicate edges in 2014 and 2015.

Gallup began regularly measuring party leaning in 1991, and in nigh years, significantly more Americans have identified equally Democrats or every bit independents who lean Autonomous than as Republicans or Republican leaners. The major exception was 1991, when Republicans held a 48% to 44% advantage in party identification and leaning. From 2001 through 2003 and in 2010 and 2011, the parties had roughly equal levels of support.

Independents Are Still the Largest Political Group in the U.S.

Regardless of which party has an reward in party affiliation, over the past three decades, presidential elections take more often than not been competitive, and political party control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate has inverse hands numerous times. This is partly because neither party tin can claim a very high share of core supporters -- those who identify with the political party -- as the largest proportion of Americans identify initially as political independents.

Overall in 2021, an boilerplate of 29% of Americans identified as Democrats, 27% as Republicans and 42% as independents. Roughly equal proportions of independents leaned to the Democratic Party (17%) and to the Republican Party (16%).

The pct of independent identifiers is up from 39% in 2020, but similar to the 41% measured in 2019. Gallup has often seen a decrease in independents in a presidential election year and an increase in the year after.

The broader trend toward an increasing share of political independents has been clear over the past decade, with more Americans viewing themselves as independents than did so in the late 1980s through 2000s. At least 4 in x Americans have considered themselves independents in all years since 2011, except for the 2016 and 2020 presidential election years. Before 2011, independent identification had never reached 40%.

Bottom Line

The year 2021 was an eventful 1 in politics, subsequently a similarly eventful 2020 that also saw major shifts in party preferences. In early on 2021, Democratic forcefulness reached levels non seen in most a decade. By the third quarter, those Democratic gains evaporated as Biden's job approval declined. The political winds continued to become more favorable to Republicans in the 4th quarter, giving the GOP an advantage over Democrats larger than any they had achieved in more 25 years.

The concluding monthly survey of 2021 showed the parties at roughly fifty-fifty force, although that withal represents a departure from the historical norm of the Autonomous Political party's having at to the lowest degree a slight advantage in party amalgamation.

With control of the House of Representatives and Senate at stake in this year'due south midterm elections, party preferences will be a key indicator of which political party will be ameliorate positioned to gain majorities in the next session of Congress.

To stay upwards to date with the latest Gallup News insights and updates, follow united states of america on Twitter .

Learn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series works.